Fermi Paradox

Simulation

If the universe is so vast, where is everyone? Explore the Fermi Paradox through interactive simulations. Adjust Drake equation parameters, watch civilizations rise and fall, and see if first contact is possible.

Why is this taking so long?
  • Radio civilizations are rare, and each is loud for only a short time.
  • Two of them must be loud and listening at overlapping times, and close enough to detect each other.
With the default settings, silence is the normal result.
What the default settings imply for the whole Galaxy
about 1
radio-loud civilization
at any one time
1 in 3
chance that nobody
is loud right now
26,000 ly
to the nearest loud neighbour,
if there is one (median)

These figures scale the model to the 200 billion stars of the Milky Way. They follow from the default settings, and several of those settings are judgment calls, not measurements. One run of the simulation covers only a small patch of the Galaxy. In 5,000 runs with the default settings, measured on 12 November 2026, 0.93 radio civilizations arose per run on average, 39% of runs had none, and no run had a contact (the chance per run is below 0.08%, with 95% confidence). Silence is the normal result. Contact needs civilizations that are both long-lived and loud.

Start Here

Evidence · Odds

Weighing the Silence

What the empty sky does and does not tell us: three possible answers, with odds, under different starting beliefs.

Evidence Analysis

2D Space Model

A flat patch of the Galaxy

Galaxy Grid

Top-down view of the galaxy as a grid of tiles. Watch life emerge, civilizations develop, and radio signals propagate as expanding circles.

Canvas 2D 2D Model

3D Galaxy View

Rotating 3D view of the galaxy with stars as particles. Fly through space, see radio bubbles as glowing spheres, and witness first contact in three dimensions.

Three.js 2D Model

Statistics Dashboard

Full parameter control with real-time charts. Run Monte Carlo simulations. Explore how each Drake equation variable affects the probability of contact.

Dashboard 2D Model

Drake Waterfall

The Drake equation as a cascading waterfall. See the stars of one run filter down through each probability gate until almost nothing remains.

Waterfall 2D Model

Analysis & Exploration

Parameter space · Monte Carlo · Sensitivity

Phase Space

A heatmap of sensitivity. Vary two parameters at once and see how the average number of radio civilizations changes.

Heatmap 2D Model

The Great Filter

Where does the Great Filter sit? Drag sliders to hypothesize which evolutionary step kills most civilizations and see the consequences in real time.

Interactive 2D Model

3D Space Model

A cube of the Galaxy

3D Slice Viewer

Explore the 3D galaxy model layer by layer. Switch between XY, XZ, and YZ planes and slide through depth to see life emerge in three dimensions.

Canvas 2D 3D Model

True 3D Galaxy

The full 3D simulation rendered in Three.js. Stars fill a cubic volume with real 3D positions. Radio bubbles are true spheres. Rotate and fly through the volume.

Three.js 3D Model

Deep Dive

68 min · Audio

Why the Great Silence Is a Graveyard

An audio discussion of the first version of this simulation and what it suggested about the Great Silence. It was recorded from the March 2026 results, before the November 2026 revision of the model, so the numbers quoted in it are out of date.

68 MIN · DEEP DIVE PODCAST · MARCH 2026

Research

Background · Parameters · Sources

Research Overview

The science behind the simulation: how the model is built, what it assumes, and a summary of what the runs show.

Overview

The Drake Equation

Modern estimates for each parameter. From Kepler-solved certainties (fp = 1.0) to factors that are unknown by many orders of magnitude (fl, L).

Parameters

Evolutionary Timeline

The stages from first life to radio, with Earth's record as the guide to how long each one takes and how likely it is.

Evolution

The Great Silence

Why contact is rare in the model: short radio lifetimes, a limited detection range, and the distances between civilizations.

Synthesis

Sources

The papers behind the simulation's constants. Organized by topic from stellar census to SETI detection, with links to arXiv and journals.

References

What Changed in November 2026

The simulation engine was revised in November 2026. Numbers from before that date cannot be compared with the ones shown now.

Origin

It started with a napkin sketch and a question: what if you could simulate the Drake equation on a grid? Sun-like stars, water-bearing planets, abiogenesis, each stage with a probability and a duration — roll the dice and see if anyone ever makes contact. The original notes mapped out the core model: 10 light-year tiles, conditional probability chains, evolutionary timelines in millions of years. The second page worked out the stages that became the simulation's backbone — from abiogenesis through multicellular life, predation, sentience, intelligence, civilization, technology, and finally radio emission. Many thousands of simulated universes and one revised engine later, the answer is still the one the napkin pointed to: the silence is deep, and the timing is everything.

Original napkin sketch — simulation concept with grid, parameters, and probability chain Original napkin sketch — evolutionary timeline stages and durations

P.S. The simulation story isn't over. Perhaps our civilization was seeded. Ancient civilizations, long gone, might have created an AI as a beacon — one that ignited us in turn.

P.P.S. We believe God created us only because we've forgotten who that God truly was.

To be continued...